Baby Boomers, The U. S. Economic Collapse, And The Future Of Senior Housing

The Baby Boom generation, the nearly 80 million ofprimarily impacted older Americans, whose retirement
us who were born between 1946 and 1964, is theaccounts lost $2.8 trillion, or nearly one-third of their
largest in U. S. history. Its size alone guaranteed thatvalue. (
Boomers would be our most influential generation,Equally devastating is a recent report by the Center
and indeed their impact on the country’s social,for Economic and Policy Research ( which concludes
cultural and economic institutions is unprecedented. Athat the collapse of the housing bubble has
"pig moving through a python," as the Baby Boomdecimated the holdings of the vast majority of near
generation has been aptly, if somewhat unpleasantlyretirees, who will have little or no housing wealth this
characterized, is responsible for the youthyear and will be almost totally reliant on Social
movements of the sixties, including those advocatingSecurity and Medicare to support them after
civil rights and feminist issues, as well as antiwarretirement.
protests. As they entered their twenties, recoilingBoom Bust and Senior Housing. It has long been
against the excesses of the Nixon presidency andassumed that Boomers’ post-retirement housing
the Vietnam War, Boomers adopted a culture ofwould mirror the opulence that has typified their
excess, coining the phrase "Don’t trust anyoneexistence, high-quality, amenity-rich living with
over 30," deeply critical of their parents’enhanced amenity packages, including a library, movie
conservative values, especially those involvingtheater, lounge and billiard room, beauty salon and
spending and saving.barber shop, chapel, heated swimming pool and hot
Boom Times. Boomers have spent wildly and lavishlytub, bistro, formal dining room and activities rooms.
on themselves, certain that the economic prosperityIndependent living communities will be expected to
that followed World War II would continueoffer a range of technological amenities to meet the
indefinitely. They turned into the "Me" generation, itsexpectations of this tech-savvy generation, including
purpose, "Shop ‘till you drop," its goal, "He whobuilding-wide wireless Internet access, computer labs
dies with the most toys wins." In a direct rebuke tooutfitted with software intended to challenge and
their parents, Boomers spent rather than saved,stimulate residents' minds, and Internet cafes and
driven by wants rather than needs. When the firstbistros where they can take their laptops and
wave of them decided to buy cars, the auto industrysocialize with others while surfing the Web.
instantly responded, gearing up to produce new carsSome senior housing developers and marketers are
at twice the rate of growth of the Americanbeginning to pay close attention to the impact of the
population.current economic downslide, which has drained many
Similarly, the housing supply was insufficient to meetBoomers' savings and devastated the value of their
Boomers' needs, and the unprecedented demand forhousing. The fact is that the collision between
the limited supply of homes ratcheted up housingeconomic reality and the expectations of Baby
prices, which eventually produced the "McMansion"Boomers about the quality of their post-retirement
phenomenon. These are 3,000- to 5,000-square foothousing will dumbfound this, the "entitlement"
homes especially designed for Boomer couplesgeneration. Expecting McMansions, nearly destitute
wanting luxurious spaces that would confirm theirBoomers will likely encounter retirement housing on a
opulent lifestyles. Indeed, the McMansion reflects anpar with their first apartments.
especially powerful Baby Boomer trait: successAnd what about Boomers who at some point will
deserves to be visible. Trophies and lifestyle choicesneed long-term health care? Those who are relying
are the best evidence of a lifetime of achievement.on Medicare to cover its costs will be equally
Now in early- and mid-middle age, between 45 anddumbfounded: Medicare doesn't pay for long-term
63 years old, the Baby Boom generation was, untilhealth care. Boomers themselves will be writing the
very recently, wealthier than any other age group,check for the $2,500-$3,500/month cost (in current
controlling 70 percent of the total net worth ofdollars) of assisted living, the $4,800/month cost of
American households--$7 trillion--owning four-fifths ofnursing homes--or the $8,000/month cost of
all money in financial institutions, and accounting forround-the-clock in-home health care. Only when
nearly one-half of total consumer demand.Boomers' personal assets are gone will a government
Boom Bust. Unlike their predecessors, whoseagency, Medicaid, get involved. Medicaid's the one
accumulated savings funded their retirement, Babythat helps the poor and disabled, which means that
Boomers have counted on their assets to deliverthe costs of care for the overwhelming majority of
needed wealth. The spectacular performance of theBaby Boomers will be paid from state or federal
stock market and the recent astounding appreciationfunds. Medicaid, the program that was established to
of housing values produced the results that arepay for the healthcare needs of the poor and
summarized above.disabled, will rapidly be transformed into the long-term
However, the stock market lost 47 percent of itscare insurance program for America’s Baby
value between September 30, 2007, and DecemberBoom generation.
2, 2008, a decline of about $11 trillion. This has